Trajektorie i wyzwania rozwoju wewnętrznych peryferii w nowych uwarunkowaniach spójności post SARS-CoV-2

Projekt realizowany przez interdyscyplinarny zespół tworzący konsorcjum trzech uczelni, w skład którego wchodzą: Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu (lider konsorcjum), Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu, Uniwersytet Mikołaja Kopernika w Toruniu, przy bezpośredniej współpracy ze Związkiem Miast Polskich.

Kierownik projektu: prof. dr hab. Paweł Churski

Okres realizacji: 2021-2025

ABSTRACT:

Domestic and regional differences in the level and dynamics of development have been subject to extensive research within economics and economic geography. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will significantly impact these differences, leading to multi-faceted economic and social consequences. The negative consequences to the so-called “inner peripheries” (permanently marginalised areas) may be particularly important. These areas find it difficult to follow the growing economic cores located around big cities. The recent pandemic may accelerate the social and economic divergence between these areas which will be undesirable from the point of view of sustainable development. The aim of the project is to identify the regularities of changes to the socio-economic development in selected inner peripheries in Poland with special attention given to their sensitivity and resilience to the consequences of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis, and the resulting recommendations for the changes in the development policy interventions. The main goal of the project has been broken down to specific objectives of cognitive, methodological and application-related nature. In the project, a novel methodological approach has been adopted. Research team will use yet unpublished data from the Ministry of Finance, data from the System of Self-Governmental Analyses and the results of in-depth analyses provided by the Association of Polish Cities. In combination with an original geospatial database of open and public data, and data provided by the Central Statistical Office on multi-faceted spatial access to services and jobs, it should lead to a better understanding of the transmission of the effects of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis on the specific industries and sectors of the economy as well as the inhabitants’ income. Among the applied analytical approaches, also an innovative multi-variant approach to systematising inner peripheries in Poland will be employed. It will take into consideration the impact of functional regions of medium-sized and small towns on the surrounding underdeveloped areas. By making use of generally available and unpublished sources of quantitative data it will be possible to apply models of spatial regression, previously not used to this end or to this extent on a local level. Another value of the planned research is the adopted structure based on identifying the factors of peripherality (factual and potential), and creating a system monitoring the multi-faceted changes to inner peripheries in the country. The research plan includes: 1) A stage of conceptualisation and explication (an analysis of the existing data, desk research). 2) A stage of operationalisation and empirical research (delimitation of study areas using Nystuen-Dacey’s largest flow method, typology by exploratory factor analysis and k-means method, TOPSIS and econometric spatial analyses; idiographic research where focus group interviews will be used alongside questionnaires and search queries; nomological research by means of the methods of spatial autocorrelation, geographically weighted regression, the method of differences in differences, relative importance of the model’s parameters by means of R2 decomposition in multiple regression models),. 3) A stage of dissemination of the results (publications, recommendations for changes and ways of implementing policies). The project’s specificity, especially the scope of the goals, places it on the border between economics and socio-economic geography which corresponds with the composition of the research team affiliated with 3 Universities constituting the project Consortium. The planned research is intended to define the social and economic consequences of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis for microeconomic trends in a spatial approach for the specific industries, sectors of the economy and labour markets. These consequences will affect the place-based capital of the specific areas and therefore will affect the scope of spatial differences in development which should result in verifying the validity and effectiveness of the existing paradigm of cohesion policy, the domestic regional policy and the locally adopted development policies.